Unrest in Sudan carries spillover threats for LibyaTue, 09th May 2023The recent outbreak of civil conflict in Sudan will have a negative effect on the situation in neighbouring Libya, particularly in the southern areas of the country—known as the Fezzan—as fighting between Sudan’s military and paramilitary leaderships threatens to derail plans to repatriate Sudanese mercenaries from Libya. Persistent political uncertainty in Libya, coupled with Sudan’s deepening conflict, is likely to delay Libya’s political transition and exacerbate security risks. According to UN estimates, a peaceful transition and reconstruction in Libya could potentially enhance economic performance in Sudan by US$22.7bn over 2021‑25. The fighting in Sudan is likely to increase flows of refugees into Libya, further straining Libya’s political process, given rising insecurity and uncertainty. We expect the conflict in Sudan to lead to increased border insecurity in southern Libya, with crossborder movements of both fighters and displaced civilians.
