New housing supply in recent years has met less than half of actual demand, the firm said. Unlike a typical property cycle where prices and supply rise in tandem, Vietnam saw prices surge after years of constrained supply, while new project launches lagged behind. Primary market prices could see a mild correction in 2026 after last year’s sharp gains. VinaCapital said the infrastructure push and legal reforms would mainly support supply expansion and improve market absorption, rather than spark another rapid price rally. The firm noted Vietnam’s property market differs from China’s pre-2020 downturn, citing low vacancy rates and tighter credit controls.
