The GDPNow forecast took another dip today with the key item, Real Final Sales, now at 0.9 percent. The difference between the two line is Change In Private Inventories (CIPI) which nets to zero over time. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.5 percent on July 3, down from 1.7 percent on July 1. But I was very confident the model did not expect the dismal ISM Report or the dismal manufacturing data. Severe Weakness in the Latest Manufactured Goods ReportPlease see Severe Weakness in the Latest Manufactured Goods ReportAlso see The Services ISM Plunges Into a Recession Forecasting ContractionThis is very recessionary data.
