As smoke clears from weeks of political bombardment, White House watchers are convinced the only questions now are how big Hillary Clinton’s win will be and whether the Democrats can take Congress, too. After the Republican convention in July, Silver briefly projected Trump would win. Polls that listen to registered voters are better predictors of electoral outcomes than polls that listen to anyone who’s willing to talk. After all the boosts and dips, the overall effect has been that Trump has fallen in popularity while Clinton has risen. Right now, Hillary Clinton’s polling average is 48% and Trump’s is 42%.

Source: The Guardian October 22, 2016 15:07 UTC