A Black Swan (capitalized) as defined by Taleb is a surprise event that could not have been predicted, has a major effect and is, usually, inappropriately rationalized by hindsight. Surprises happen all the time, but the world has not seen a true Black Swan — other than the literal birds, which are native to Australia — in about 20 years, but it will in 2022. If I knew what it was, then it wouldn't be a Black Swan. It is probably up to the task; other predictions of the Chinese economy's demise in years past have, so far, all been proven wrong. Any serious escalation, particularly involving Taiwan, will be viewed as too costly; at least, until China gets its financial house in order.

Source: Manila Times January 01, 2022 16:29 UTC