The US economy is under strain, and the oil price shock could tip it over into recession. That didn’t happen, but some economists predicted a recession by the end of the year (that also didn’t happen). 20242025Trump’s historic tariffs sent markets into serious turmoil , and Wall Street banks raised their recession risks to about 50-50 in April. 1) The “rolling recession” theory: Several individual sectors have gone into recession while other sectors have boomed at the same time. Robust spending from wealthier Americans balances out the financial difficulties of lower-income households, preventing the broader economy from entering a recession.

Source: CNN March 30, 2026 11:31 UTC