Was there a mole in Putin’s inner circle, passing on the war plans to their CIA or MI6 handlers? Photograph: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty ImagesIn Washington, the working assumption was that, at least in the initial phase of the war, Putin would be successful. “At every meeting, they told me it’s happening for sure,” said a Ukrainian intelligence official stationed in Washington, recounting numerous encounters with CIA counterparts. Pre-war, much of Ukraine’s political leadership had believed a major Russian invasion unthinkable. “Half of it is we overestimated Russian military performance and underestimated the Ukrainian military,” said Michael Kofman, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington.

Source: The Guardian February 20, 2026 11:10 UTC