What started as a distant geopolitical conflict has quickly landed squarely on our country's economy, driving up fuel costs, squeezing household budgets, and threatening to slow growth. If it continues, New Zealand could be staring down the barrel of another recession. "So this sort of shock, if it gets worse, will definitely increase the risk of a recession here," Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr said. "And we have only just gotten out of recession, so to fall back in would be horrendous for households and businesses." And when fuel costs rise, everything that relies on transport follows - from groceries to clothing to construction materials.

Source: Otago Daily Times March 19, 2026 20:26 UTC