Oil prices have increased substantially as war ramps up in the Middle East, which could cause the baht to weaken to 33 per dollar, says K-Research. The greenback is also supported by expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates gradually and fewer times than the market anticipated, as US inflation rises in response to higher oil prices, she said. K-Research anticipates the baht weakening to 32.8 to the dollar in a worst-case scenario based on the war in the Middle East. "But if oil prices top $100 per barrel for a prolonged period, the baht will almost certainly slide to near 33 to the dollar," she said. Thailand spends roughly 5-6% of GDP on oil imports, significantly higher than neighbouring Southeast Asian countries, said Ms Kanjana.

Source: Bangkok Post March 05, 2026 02:05 UTC