Two weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the full scope of the resulting oil crisis is becoming clear. Historically, a 10% increase in oil prices adds roughly 0.15-0.2% to Price Consumer Expenditure (PCE) inflation within three to six months3. With PCE at 2.9% and Q4 GDP at just 1.4%, headline inflation could push toward 3.5-3.7% even as growth stalls. Meanwhile, logistical constraints are limiting the physical oil market. Oil breaches $1508 amid fragmented global supply chains, while gold surges past $6,000 under extreme monetary stress.

Source: Washington Post March 16, 2026 15:26 UTC