Markets have priced in a two-thirds chance of a +25 bps rate rise. Their 1-5 curve is flatter at +19 bps (+4 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +53 bps (-5 bps). The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.96%, up +1 bp from yesterday. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today up a sharp +8 bps at 4.77%. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +60 bps at just under 62.2.

Source: Stuff March 16, 2026 20:13 UTC