(Jan 16): China’s economy likely capped 2025 with its weakest quarterly growth in three years, exposing a lopsided reliance on exports over consumption that’s set to extend into coming months. “We expect China’s exports to remain resilient thanks to an accelerated global economy,” Macquarie Group economists including Larry Hu wrote in a note last week. “Macro policies will likely remain supportive to avoid a cliff, but are unlikely to become more expansionary,” the economists wrote in a report Tuesday. “Even with strong determination and sufficient resources, transforming China’s economy into one driven by consumption and services will take years,” they said. Citigroup economists including Yu Xiangrong expect only a “measured” policy expansion, given the strength of external demand and emerging industries.

Source: The Edge Markets January 16, 2026 13:31 UTC