The violent and deadly flooding in Germany and Belgium last month was an extremely rare event, scientists said Monday, but one that was made more likely by climate change. The scientists found that the record rainfall that led to the flooding, including a 24-hour total of 3.5 inches in the Ahr and Erft river valleys in western Germany, was a 400-year event, meaning in any given year there was a 1-in-400 chance of such a downpour occurring in the region. But the analysis showed that while rare, such an event was 1.2 to 9 times more likely now than it would have been more than a century ago, before emissions of heat-trapping gases warmed the world by more than 1 degree Celsius (about 2 degrees Fahrenheit). And if the world warms to 2 degrees Celsius, as is likely without drastic cuts in emissions, the probability of such an event would increase even more, becoming 1.2 to 1.4 times likely as currently.

Source: International New York Times August 23, 2021 22:00 UTC