There are two key channels of risk for the global economy in the current conflict – energy prices and economic confidence. Expectations of a sharper ramp up in oil prices may have been dampened by an Opec+ statement committing to increase supply over the weekend. It must be noted that Iran itself is a relatively small producer, accounting for less than 4% of global oil output. On the importer side, most of the Gulf oil and gas is shipped to Asia, with China, India, and Japan directly exposed. It is also worth noting that the balance of power in global energy markets has shifted markedly compared to the last major Gulf war involving the US in 2003.

Source: Irish Examiner March 02, 2026 23:05 UTC