If we learned anything in 2016, it’s that people don’t vote necessarily for someone of whom they approve; they choose the person they disapprove of less. Or how Trump’s ratings could improve before the election, or who specifically his Democratic opponent might be. Let’s take the simple case of approval being binary – that people vote only for someone they approve of and never vote for someone they don’t. In that scenario, Trump’s ratings could slump to 27 in any state (“73 percent disapprove of him!”), but if his competition checks in at 22, he would win. Trump's swing-state approval ratings were in the low 40s, sure, but they bear little on his 2020 chances.

Source: Forbes March 05, 2019 15:45 UTC