Under the SM system, the primary vote is the electorate vote; and the supplementary vote is the party vote. Then they will turn their attention to the party vote, which they understand to being a separate poll to choose list MPs. The SM/FPP mindset mainly affects the electorate vote, treating it as a party vote rather than a personal vote. MMP thinking minimises changes in electorate MPs, meaning that there can be big swings among major-party list MPs instead. Under SM/FPP-informed electorate voting, I am predicting 16 electorate MPs for Labour and 17 list MPs.

Source: New Zealand Herald October 09, 2023 06:11 UTC