Acknowledgment that the U.S.-China nuclear deterrence relationship is one of mutually assured destruction could, in theory, eliminate a major driver of not just the Chinese but also a U.S. nuclear buildup. At best, Golden Dome will represent a slight upgrade to existing U.S. ICBM defenses, which China can already easily surmount. It should be uncontroversial for U.S. officials to explain this point in U.S.-China dialogue, as it is evident from the history of U.S. ICBM defenses and current administration practices. However, without sustained, high-level strategic dialogue, U.S.-China nuclear planning is more likely to be based on worst-case assumptions about rival intentions rather than on accurate understandings of threat drivers and how to address them. Moreover, the absence of unconditional nuclear strategic dialogue is not just confined to the U.S.-China rivalry, and afflicts other nuclear-armed states.

Source: The Times October 22, 2025 08:46 UTC