“The composition of gross domestic product (GDP) growth will look different from last cycle in the years ahead,” wrote David Mericle, Goldman’s chief US economist. Goldman’s forecasts are more bullish:A GDP growth rate of 2.5% in 2026 (on a fourth-quarter-on-fourth-quarter basis) or 2.8% on a full-year basis. Core personal consumptions expenditures inflation of 2.1% year-on-year by December, with the core consumer price index slowing to 2%. Consumer spending should grow steadily, supported by tax cuts and real wage gains. Business investment will be the strongest component of GDP in 2026, benefiting from easier financial conditions, reduced policy uncertainty and tax incentives, Mericle wrote.

Source: The Edge Markets January 12, 2026 04:26 UTC