However, potential industry headwinds could drag the price estimate much lower to $19 in a downside scenario – representing downside of around 30%. , which represents the total market size and is the number of income tax returns that are filed with the IRS each year. Downside Scenario Shows RisksOur downside scenario uses more pessimistic estimates for these five inputs, and results in substantial downside to our price estimate. Further, the ratio of international to U.S. returns filed is assumed to remain level at 18% (instead of increasing to 19% under the base case). It should be noted that the net income per tax return filed was $16.20 in fiscal 2016, so the $16.50 figure is certainly plausible.

Source: Forbes February 21, 2018 19:52 UTC