The IMF in its World Economic Outlook, update forecast global GDP growth at 3.3% in 2026, up ‌0.2 percentage point from its last estimate in October. That's even with 3.3% growth in 2025, which will also beat the October estimate by 0.1 percentage point, the IMF said. The latest IMF forecasts assume an effective US tariff rate of 18.5% down from about 25% in the Fund's April 2025 forecast. The IMF edged its 2027 growth forecast a tenth of a point lower to 2.0%. The Fund kept its 2027 euro zone growth forecast unchanged at 1.4%, noting that planned European increases in defense spending would materialize only in later years.

Source: The Telegraph January 19, 2026 13:42 UTC