Across the combined sample in the battleground states of Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, Biden leads by 6 points (48% to 42%). The same shift nationally puts Biden up by between 7 and 8 points, which is exactly where the race is nationally. In 2018, Trump wasn't running against any single candidate. This year, Biden, the standard bearer for the party, is about as popular as the Democratic Party as a whole was in 2018. If that continues to be the case through this election, Trump will almost certainly lose because Biden, not Clinton, is on the ballot.

Source: CNN September 12, 2020 16:30 UTC