While the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in February estimated Asia’s third largest economy to have contracted by 8% in FY21, SBI now projects the Indian economy actually may have shrank by 7.3%. “Based on quarterly GDP numbers in FY21 and full year FY21 GDP estimates, Q4GDP was projected to reveal a contraction of 1.1%. Based on SBI Nowcasting model the forecasted GDP growth for Q4 would be around 1.3% (with downward bias). However, the report said the likely consequence of any upward revision in FY21 estimates is a concomitant decline in FY22 GDP estimates. Real GDP loss would be in the range of ₹4-4.5 lakh crore and hence real GDP growth would be in the range of 10% -15% (as against RBI forecast of 26.2%) during Q1FY21.

Source: Mint May 25, 2021 15:22 UTC