Investors are hunting for the “pain point” that prompts US President Donald Trump to make policy pivots on his war in Iran as his social media posts ignite severe swings in the oil market. Gasoline over $4 (€3.46) is a political killer,” said Jorge Montepeque, oil analyst at Onyx Capital Group. One senior energy trader pointed to what they saw as a clear pattern: whenever US oil prices – currently trading around $10 below Brent – approached $95 to $100 a barrel, the administration’s de-escalatory rhetoric intensified and market speculation about potential government intervention in the oil market grew louder. “If the index moves up, a probability of strategic adjustment by the US administration is more likely,” Uleer said. Other investors are simply waiting out the chaos, too worried about being caught offside by Trump’s next post on Truth Social.

Source: The Irish Times March 26, 2026 18:02 UTC