European gas prices shot up almost 50 per cent at one point on Monday, after Qatar halted liquefied natural gas production following strikes from Iran, which has come under attack from the US and Israel since Saturday. The magnitude of the shock from the Middle East would depend “on the breadth and duration of the conflict”, Lane said. In the analysis, the ECB modelled a third of the oil and gas transiting the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. In such a scenario, its economists estimated oil prices, which at the time were roughly $80 a barrel, would rise more than 50 per cent to about $130 a barrel. “This is not an environment where I see an argument in favour of taking a bit of risk on inflation,” he added.

Source: The Irish Times March 03, 2026 11:26 UTC