Lesson from India to avoid the middle-income trapVisitors walk past a hoarding of a virtual reality headset displayed at the AI Impact Summit in New Delhi on Feb 17. But with a population growth rate of 0.6%, the corresponding constant-dollar GNI growth rate would be 7.9%. Together, these figures imply a constant-dollar GDP growth rate of 7.6%. The fifth and final factor likely to enable India to escape the middle-income trap is fierce competition among its 28 states for investment and global market share. The states on India's western coast and southern peninsula have already sustained robust growth for longer than any country that fell into the middle-income trap ever did.

Source: Bangkok Post March 18, 2026 00:18 UTC