Government interventions, including the travel ban and lockdown, have potentially averted at least 20 000 deaths, says a top scientist. Had they stayed on the same trajectory, De Oliveira estimated at least 20 000 people would have died. Crucially, he said, the "reproduction number" over time in South Africa, represented as R(t) by epidemiologists, had decreased to about one. "Rt" is like "R0" - the basic reproduction number indicating how many new cases are generated by each infected person - but over time. But while De Oliveira and others believe the country has flattened the curve, not everyone agrees the drop in reproduction number is enough.

Source: News 24 May 13, 2020 04:03 UTC