Our league-projection formula helps determine how often one team should beat another based on its actual and projected win rates. That gives us win probabilities for every game, as well as an implied margin of victory — helpful for picking games against the spread. When you see the potential for so much variance from the projection, a game is usually just not worth the money. This makes trying to pick every single NFL game something of a fool’s errand. The odds should be in my favor in the three games above, which is why I think they’re worth a bet.

Source: Washington Post September 13, 2018 14:09 UTC