The war in the Middle East shows signs of becoming prolonged, likely pushing global oil prices significantly higher than estimated, says Mr Ekniti. Every US$10 increase in the oil price per barrel is expected to reduce Thai GDP by 0.2 percentage points, according to caretaker finance minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas. "Initially it assessed a case in which the war could end within one month, estimating that every $10 increase in oil prices would reduce GDP growth by around 0.2 percentage points." He said the ministry urgently convened an internal meeting of executives to analyse the oil market and related import factors. In this case, Thai GDP growth slows to 1.3% this year, according to the council.

Source: Bangkok Post March 17, 2026 21:38 UTC