But it would take an earthquake now for Catherine Connolly to be denied victory in next week’s vote, Thursday’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll suggests. There have been others in recent weeks, all of which have shown Connolly with a significant lead – but none as big as Thursday’s. If these numbers – or anything like them – are repeated on election day, Connolly will win on the first count. But it is very unlikely that they all happen together – and with sufficient intensity to overturn the Connolly lead. The first half of this campaign seemed to be about the people who weren’t in it; the second half has sometimes seemed to be all about Catherine Connolly.

Source: The Irish Times October 16, 2025 20:49 UTC