He might be able to recoup some of those seats from suburban seats held by Conservatives, but that would likely be nowhere near enough to offset the losses elsewhere. The Conservatives did poorly in urban and suburban Canada in the 2019 vote, dropping dramatically in suburban Toronto and gaining only a few points in suburban Vancouver and Winnipeg. As a result, Trudeau has at most six or seven metro-area seats he might pick up. The net result could be a loss of 25 or more seats, with as many as 19 moving to the second-place Tories. The Conservatives have 119 seats right now; if they gain 11 or more while Trudeau’s Liberals lose 25 or more, the Conservatives would end up with more seats.

Source: Washington Post August 19, 2021 18:55 UTC