Amid all the uncertainty in politics and policy, growth disappointed in the third quarter of 2025, falling by 0.6% from the previous quarter. At its December meeting, the Bank of Thailand kept a neutral tone even as it cut the policy rate to 1.25%. Similar to the May 2023 election, the largest risk to Thailand's economic outlook in 2026 is a policy standstill. Further de-escalation of US-China trade relations could also pose a downside risk to the economy in 2026. The real policy rate would likely remain positive, mitigating any potential build-up in household debt.

Source: Bangkok Post January 07, 2026 05:53 UTC