However, without the commitment of ground forces to battle regime defenders in Iran, Trump’s objective is unlikely to be attained. He has repeatedly called for the overthrow the regime by the Iranian people whose mass antigovernment protests were brutally put down in January. Regime change would involve the ouster of the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who, according to Iranian official reports, left Tehran and is in a safe location. The essential contributors to regime change in Iran are defection from or division of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a unified domestic opposition ready and able to assume power. With this in mind, regime change in Iran appears extremely unlikely.

Source: The Irish Times February 28, 2026 18:08 UTC