Photograph: Aidan Crawley/BloombergA sudden slowdown in demand for Irish exports linked to changes in United States trade policy or a global recession would have a “severe impact” on the economy here, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has warned. Household disposable income and consumption would also take a hit with the ESRI projecting these to be 6.7 per cent and 6.2 per cent lower respectively than they might have been. The ESRI report examined how changes in the global economic environment and domestic policies might affect Ireland’s economic trajectory. [ Irish economy contracts by 0.3% as multinational export surge unwindsOpens in new window ]The last time the ESRI published a medium-term economic outlook report was in 2016. The effect on the economy as a whole is less than the other two scenarios with national income being 1.5 per cent lower by 2030.

Source: The Irish Times December 12, 2025 10:00 UTC