All of the accounts appeared around March 21, just as messaging from Washington began to shift. The Market Is Paying AttentionThe odds of a ceasefire on Polymarket have climbed quickly, moving from 6% to 24% in just a few days. A Growing Role in Global EventsPrediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are becoming more visible in discussions around global politics. For the bet to pay out, both the U.S. and Iran would need to officially confirm that a ceasefire agreement has been reached. If it turns out that insider knowledge played a role here, it could have serious consequences.

Source: The Guardian March 24, 2026 11:10 UTC