Biden won in 2020 with 51.3% of the popular vote, a vote share tending to entail victory in most electoral systems. [7] Still, Trump’s electoral performance in both 2016 and 2020 suggests that returning to the White House is likely to prove an uphill struggle. [10]If Republican primary voters were to prioritize electability, it would thus not be all that surprising for them to play it safely and choose someone else. So might Nikki Haley stage a similar upset at the South Carolina Republican primary on February 24, to the one that propelled Biden to victory in 2020? [12] Incidentally, South Carolina used to be famous, in modern Republican primary folklore for always picking the eventual nominee.

Source: New York Times February 16, 2024 16:27 UTC