Similar to the way Democratic candidates (and ballot initiatives) have been way overperforming what the polls seem to say. the 538 polling average for Virginia showed a blowout Trump win a 48.7% margin of victory over Haley. They were way, way off, not only by double digits but in one of those cases, by more than 20 percent. And those were also two of the states with the biggest polling misses compared to the Super Tuesday results, way outside of the MOE. Including again, in 3 states that used 538 averages across multiple polls, provided right before the Super Tuesday primaries.

Source: ABC News March 07, 2024 06:20 UTC