Having said all of that, I think we have passed the "uh oh" threshold with Tropical Storm Florence. The National Hurricane Center and our most reliable models are forecasting the storm to intensify to a Hurricane Florence (again). The exact position of the high pressure center will determine when or if there is a turn. One reason that I am starting to be more aggressive about the threat is that hurricane track forecasts have significantly improved in recent decades. I have written in Forbes on why the track forecasts are somewhat easier to manage than the intensity forecasts.

Source: Forbes September 08, 2018 12:22 UTC