A standing economic joke was that once economists agree that we’ve conquered the business cycle, expect a recession. Unlike industrial commodities such as steel and copper, demand for oil is much less responsive to recession, especially motor gasoline consumption. Overall, U.S. oil consumption dropped by about 2 mb/d, over two years. (Next figure)the author(12-month moving average)the authorTo what degree would a new recession affect oil prices? Potentially, a U.S. slowdown would cause a global recession and oil demand would drop by over 0.5 mbd a quarter, about half of what was seen in the 2008 experience (extrapolating OECD demand to the world).

Source: Forbes January 22, 2018 13:41 UTC