In the case of a prolonged civil war in Iran, including a long-term disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, Turkey will be one of the most affected countries. First, if the Trump administration were to implement its plan to arm and provide both logistical and air support to the Kurds in Iran, Turkey could face security risks greater than those experienced during the Syrian civil war. Despite similarities that might be drawn between the Iran war and the Syrian civil war in this scenario, key structural differences exist, most notably, Turkey’s limited means to influence events in Iran compared to its active proxy engagements in Syria. A protracted civil war will force people out of their homes, and many would see Turkey as a safe country, which may witness another exodus of refugees. Another unintended consequence of the Iran war for Turkey could be its further isolation in the Eastern Mediterranean, as Greece, France, and the United Kingdom have decided to increase their naval presence there.

Source: CNN March 07, 2026 01:25 UTC