By Joshua KirbyEconomic activity is set to weaken in the U.S., leading to a likely shallow recession next year, according to an economic index that measures business cycles. The Conference Board said Thursday that its Leading Economic Index fell 0.7% to 104.6 in September after falling 0.5% in August, marking 18 months of consecutive decline. The index was expected to fall less steeply, by 0.4%, according to economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Factors including new orders, consumer expectations for business and building permits were negative in September, pointing to weakness ahead, though current economic activity remained positive. The Leading Economic Index is a predictive variable that anticipates turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

Source: Wall Street Journal October 19, 2023 20:44 UTC