But while they said many African nations had been swift to adopt containment measures, they warned that health systems could still quickly become overwhelmed. "Our model points to the scale of the problem for health systems if containment measures fail," said the authors. The researchers said they expect the virus would likely circulate within the region for longer than other countries, possibly for several years. Of the region's large countries, South Africa, Cameroon and Algeria were also in the top ten for exposure risk. They also looked at health risk factors -- proportion of the population over 65, HIV prevalence (as a proxy for chronic communicable conditions) and diabetes (as a proxy for non-communicable chronic illness).

Source: Daily Nation May 15, 2020 03:33 UTC