Piyasak Manason, head of economic research at InnovestX, said the impact on Thailand would likely unfold in phases, beginning with immediate shocks to energy prices and capital flows in the short term, followed by broader structural economic risks if the conflict drags on. These higher costs would likely pass through to consumers, fuelling cost-push inflation and squeezing profit margins for listed companies across several industries, he said. STAGFLATION SCENARIOIf the conflict extends beyond three months, the risks could shift from temporary price shocks to deeper structural damage, said Mr Piyasak. Global ratings agencies including Fitch Ratings and Moody's have maintained a negative outlook on Thailand's fiscal trajectory. Second is the maintenance of fiscal discipline, particularly in balancing public pressure for energy subsidies with the need to preserve fiscal credibility.

Source: Bangkok Post March 15, 2026 22:38 UTC