The New York Times/Siena College poll gives Biden a 49% to 41% lead over Trump among likely voters. Importantly, new state polls released Sunday indicate Biden's well out in front in some key electoral battlegrounds as well. There were a lot more undecided or third party voters at this point in the 2016 cycle. Given that there are far fewer undecided/third party voters this time, the chance of that happening again is slimmer than in 2016. Debates don't usually move the dial that much, but it's completely conceivable that Biden's national lead is slimmed a point or two by them.

Source: CNN September 27, 2020 15:22 UTC