Tehran’s most ideologically committed forces—particularly within the IRGC and the security services—are widely expected to resist collapse at almost any cost. By contrast, Iran’s economic oligarchy, though deeply intertwined with the state, appears far less ideologically anchored. In multilateral forums, Moscow has consistently portrayed Iran’s repression as a legitimate exercise of sovereignty in response to foreign-backed destabilization. While Tehran’s regional reach and energy leverage matter, its geography does not offer Moscow comparable proximity to US power. For Moscow, supporting Tehran is not only about regional influence but about defending the principle that political systems can withstand sustained popular challenge through transnational cooperation.

Source: International New York Times January 13, 2026 17:43 UTC