However, an agreement between the sides would entail a further division of Libya into spheres of influence – as if the country was not divided enough already. Moreover, a direct Russian military intervention in Libya would capture the attention of the United States. In the spheres of influence scenario, Tripoli has an interest in balancing Ankara’s influence with that of other outside powers, to avoid geopolitical suffocation. Libya is an inevitable test for what President Ursula von der Leyen has called a “geopolitical” European Commission. Marta Dassù is an ECFR Board and Council Member and Senior Director of European Affairs at The Aspen Institute.

Source: Libya Today June 30, 2020 08:03 UTC