It went for the jumbo cut in October because of the clear signs the sought-after economic recovery was faltering and, well, people needed cheering up. So, it went ahead in November with the non-needed cut, but was reasonably clear that this one would be the finish. What the RBNZ has done in its projections (page 40) in the latest MPS, is give a just over 50% chance that the OCR will move up in the December 2026 OCR review, and an over 100% chance it will have risen in the February 2027 review. Take what many regard as the 'prudent' approach, and signal hikes to counter inflation, and this could squash the recovery. We do need to give the economy a chance.

Source: Stuff February 20, 2026 01:52 UTC