It seems like the markets are discounting the prospects of regime change in Venezuela on the global oil markets. The status quo for Venezuela's oil industry has been sharply declining production in recent years as the country as the country has failed to adequately invest in its oil industry. Regime change could turn around Venezuela's oil industry, but it would depend upon how that regime change is accomplished. Either case will put additional strain on global oil markets in the short term, while a peaceful regime change should enable Venezuela to once again start to substantially grow its oil exports in three to five years. More significant factors that will impact oil prices in 2019 are OPEC's production cuts, the expiration (or not) of waivers on Iran's oil exports, and the continued growth of U.S. shale oil production.

Source: Forbes January 24, 2019 18:10 UTC