In the preface to the finance ministry’s Monthly Economic Review for March, released on Saturday, Nageswaran said the government’s earlier projection of 7–7.4 per cent GDP growth for FY27 now appears at risk. War broke out in West Asia shortly after the release of the new GDP series (base year 2022-23), which triggered a spike in crude prices. Earlier this month, Nageswaran had told the Parliamentary Standing Committee on finance that crude prices up to $90 per barrel would have a limited macroeconomic impact. However, sustained levels around $130 per barrel for two to three quarters could push retail inflation to 5.5 per cent in FY27 and drag growth down to 6.4 per cent. The combined effect on growth, inflation, fiscal balances and the external account, he said, is “likely to be significant”.

Source: The Telegraph March 29, 2026 02:14 UTC