ADFiveThirtyEight’s final average in the state, though, had Biden winning by nearly five points. The pattern is that there’s a correlation between the final result in a state and how much the polls were off. ADADOn average, state polls in 2020 predicted margins that probably will end up being a bit under five points more favorable to Biden than the actual result, as of writing. One, Trafalgar Group, made the rounds in the media arguing that its black-box methodology showed Trump winning most states he’d won in 2016. Although its past seven state polls were, on average, two points off the mark to Biden’s detriment, it was incorrect about five states.

Source: Washington Post November 16, 2020 13:30 UTC