War in the Gulf raises the prospect of renewed imported inflation in Morocco, just days before Bank Al‑Maghrib (BAM) holds its first quarterly monetary policy meeting of 2026. The central question now is whether geopolitical uncertainty justifies maintaining an accommodative stance or preparing for a tightening cycle to counter rising external price pressures. However, if oil prices continue rising, the central bank faces a complex trade‑off of supporting economic activity while managing inflation expectations. A global growth slows with higher oil prices would inflate Morocco’s energy bill and widen its trade deficit, putting further pressure on the currency and potentially amplifying imported inflation. Either opting for status quo until some uncertainties dissipate about the duration of the war or raise rates to cushion against imported inflation.

Source: The North Africa Journal March 11, 2026 13:28 UTC